NFL Matchup Prediction System

Percentile-based NFL prediction framework that strips away volume bias and layers in coverage scheme tendencies and directional analysis to predict game outcomes and player performance.

What It Does

Normalizes team and player stats into percentile rankings within positional groups, then layers in coverage scheme breakdowns and directional tendencies to generate matchup-aware predictions. Designed for both game-level predictions and player prop evaluation.

How It Works

1. 1.Percentile Normalization — Raw stats converted to percentile ranks within positional groups, eliminating volume bias so a running back on a run-heavy team isn't artificially inflated against one on a pass-heavy team
2. 2.EPA Integration — Expected Points Added weights plays by actual value created, not just yardage — a 3-yard run on 3rd & 2 is worth more than a 3-yard run on 3rd & 10
3. 3.Coverage Scheme Analysis — Breaks down zone/man/blitz rates by defense, predicting how offenses will attack based on defensive tendencies
4. 4.Directional Tendencies — Tracks where teams attack (left/middle/right, short/deep) against specific alignments, identifying exploitable patterns

player_percentile = normalize_to_percentile(player_stats, position_group)
coverage_modifier = analyze_coverage_scheme(defense, offense_formation)
epa_weight = calculate_epa_factor(play_context)
prediction = base_projection * coverage_modifier * epa_weight

Key Insight

The percentile-based approach solves volume bias — the biggest problem in NFL analytics. Raw stats reward opportunity, not efficiency. Percentile normalization strips this away, and when you layer coverage scheme tendencies on top, you get predictions grounded in how a defense actually plays, not just how they rank on a spreadsheet.